HalfSpaces Grades: USMNT Year in Review

I started grading games back in May of 2019. I wrote up an overview of that year, but it felt less than satisfying because I only graded about half the matches the USMNT played and because the scoring system was in its infancy/evolving rapidly. The plan was to grade all the matches in 2020 and do a review of that year…2020 had other ideas.

So finally now in 2021 I was able to grade every match the USMNT played. I still tweak the grading system here and there, but it has been consistently applied over the course of the calendar year.

One of the additions from the 2019 version is the Adjusted Total/Adjusted per 90 stat. The goal of it was to adjust the grades for competition level. Counting a +10 against Guatemala in a friendly and a +9 against Mexico in a Gold Cup final isn’t equitable. The Adjusted number uses team Elo ratings and competition factors to adjust the score up or down. The formula for adjusting the raw score is:

Here’s what that looked like for the USMNT’s win vs Mexico in November.

From there you simply multiply each grade by 1.326 and you get the adjusted score. In one match this doesn’t matter because you are changing everyone’s grade by the same amount, but over time it should help mitigate great performances against bad teams or in friendlies. We’ll take a look and see if it actually did that.

Link to spreadsheet so it’s sortable (I think)

Player of the Year: Miles Robinson

Sort that spreadsheet any which-way you’d like…Miles is gonna end up at the top of it. He has the highest raw total, adjusted total, per 90 average, and adjusted per 90 average (I’m a moron and screwed up his minutes played🤦‍♂️). He’s gone from a fringe roster guy, to the first center back on the team sheet when Berhalter is making up his lineup. Adding Miles to the back-line is a little like adding a shutdown corner to the secondary of an American football team. It makes life much easier on everyone else back there.

The center back profiles have gotten a little more interchangeable in the last window or two (imo), but Robinson is still the best defensive stopper-type CB in the pool. I think there’s some untapped potential with the ball too. He’s shown the ability to carry the ball and play a nice long ball at times.

There’s also finally some noise about him moving to Europe. I hope he makes that jump and continues to grow as a player. His play this year has been the most encouraging new development on the team and it will be very nice to have him available again come January.

Best Single Game Performance of 2021: Kellyn Acosta (+21.5)

This was Acosta’s total grade in the Gold Cup Final against Mexico. Acosta has had his ups and downs during 2021, but you have to give the man credit for his performance in that match. He was everywhere. For 120 minutes his engine didn’t quit and he carried an out-manned midfield against a near full strength Mexico squad. Here’s a reminder courtesy of Kranks:

Kellyn Acosta vs Mexico#USMNT pic.twitter.com/GyVy62wYFM

— dispossessed Kranks (@dis_possessed) August 2, 2021

And here’s his portion of the event log:

At that point, I thought he would be a capable understudy to Tyler Adams at the #6 position…I’m not so sure about that anymore, but you can never take that night away from him. What a great performance and evening.

Surprises

Matthew Hoppe (+8.1 per/90 and +9.6 Adj. per/90)

Believe it or not, when I click “sort” on these things I really don’t know who is going to come up on the top of the pile. When I saw Hoppe near the top of both of these lists I was pretty surprised. He did have a good Gold Cup though and he didn’t have any poor performances to drag his average down. The lowest score he put up in any match he started was a 6.5. He also rarely played the whole 90 minutes so those scores go up a little on a per/90 basis.

Putting a good run of matches together and being the only halfway decent offensive threat should earn you some cred, right? Plus, his ability to get under the skin of the opposition is a great addition to the team. If he gets healthy and puts together a decent run of form for Mallorca he could be an intriguing option at wing/forward.

Gio Reyna (+10.4 per/90)

It’s not that I don’t realize Reyna is good. It’s just that sometimes I forget exactly how good he is. He’s been out for three months now and it’s easy to forget how influential he is for club and country.

His lowest total in any match he started was a +5 against Switzerland (a good team) and he only went 72′. Reyna is consistently threatening for a team that often struggles to create danger. He’s also been greatly missed by Dortmund since his replacement (Malen) hasn’t exactly lit it up. He’s rumored to be back in training so hopefully we get to see him in the Bundesliga and with the USMNT come January.

John Brooks (+3.7 per/90)

Brooks getting left off the roster in November was a pretty big surprise. Looking back on the year though…maybe it shouldn’t have been. Brooks has the best pedigree and is playing at the highest level of any center back in the pool. I don’t think that’s up for debate. Is he the best fit for the way Berhalter wants the team to play though?

This gif shows Walker Zimmerman reacting very quickly to snuff out a possible Mexico counter and then turning around to recover. Brooks is a better CB than Zimmerman, but he also doesn’t have the athleticism required to pull this off. Brooks should absolutely be on the team going forward with his ability to start attacks from the back. But if the style of play in a game isn’t going to fit his skill set then I can understand going with more athletic options at center back.

Random Thoughts

Yedlin’s ranking near the bottom was a little eyebrow raising, but I think that’s more recency bias. He’s played fairly well lately, but struggled earlier in the year. Steffen’s low score is similar, but he’s also a keeper and they tend to come out with lower numbers anyhow, nothing to be too upset over. Dest is another one that has come on of late for the USMNT but had some less than stellar performances earlier in 2021.

Overall, I’m pretty happy with how the yearly scores came out. The best players are at or near the top.

Team Avg. in 2021

As you can see from the chart, the US has struggled with consistency. Part of this is having a young team, but it would also be nice if we could figure out how to play well on the road. That’s not exactly news though. Two World Cup qualifying windows remain and then it’s on to World Cup prep assuming all goes well. It’s been a fun year to be a USMNT fan. Three wins over Mexico, two trophies, and some exciting young players growing together. Thanks for reading all year. Cheers.

Ben

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PS – I know there’s one more match in 2021, but it’s a super meaningless friendly and won’t change these numbers much. I’ll grade it, but I doubt I’ll update this spreadsheet with the data.