USMNT Gold Cup Plus/Minus Review

It’s been a few days now. Hopefully at this point blood pressures are down and the logical side of our brains has re-engaged. I haven’t been using this scoring system long enough that I can be exactly sure what the numbers mean, but I think I can draw some general conclusions.

Scoring Trends I’ve Noticed

• Goalkeepers score low. Unless a team is under siege and the keeper has to make multiple highlight reel saves, the score is going to be on the lowish side (something like 8 or under).
• Midfielders tend to have more opportunities for graded events. They are pretty much always within view of the camera and tend to be involved in a lot of plays both offensively and defensively.
• Passing CBs have an advantage over strictly defensive CBs. I’m convinced Aaron Long had a really good tournament for the US, but his scores didn’t usually come out too high. I think this is because he reads and covers so well. Plus, the one knock on his game is that he’s not a great passer. (To be fair though this may not be a flaw. Ball-playing CBs are really important – especially to teams that want to keep the ball.)

Cumulative Plus/Minus Scores

Player of the Tournament – Christian Pulisic (+49)

Not exactly a surprise, right? Pulisic didn’t have a game where he dominated from start to finish, but he was good for periods in every game he played. His “worst” game of the tournament was Guyana and he still had +11 in positive events. He ended up at +3, which isn’t terrible, and that was probably due to the team getting used to playing together. Overall, Christian was the most dangerous player on the team and was a nightmare for the opposition to deal with. His switching from the left halfspace to the wing with Arriola over the course of the Gold Cup was effective. As he gets older he may even be able to dominate games for more than 15-20 minutes at a time like he did during this tourney. Exciting times.

Weston McKennie (+43)

McKennie was less consistent than Christian. He had three really good games and two stinkers. Those stinkers may have been at least partially due to the tactical setup of the team, but I’m only trying to grade player events not events + tactics. Someone smarter than me will have to invent that system. It’s not exactly shocking that a 20 year old that spent last season getting switched all over the field by one of the worst teams in the Bundesliga would struggle with consistency though. I’m hopeful that David Wagner finds a consistent position in the midfield for McKennie this year and he gets to grow there. His late runs from deep and creative passing were serious positives for the team.

Really Good Per 90 Minutes – Jozy Altidore (+9.1)

I’ve invented a stat based on my other invented stat. 😂 Pulisic comes out best by this metric too at +9.9 per 90 minutes, but Altidore was close behind with a +9.1. The frustrating thing is that Jozy only played 162 of a possible 540 minutes in the tournament. The difference in how effective the offense was with Altidore in there at the 9 compared to Zardes (-0.8 per 90) was night and day. The problem is that Jozy is rarely healthy for any lengthy stretch of time. The forwards coming up that approximate Altidore’s skillset are limited as well. Sargent looks the closest and Pepi might have some potential in that direction, but I can’t think of another one. Soto is a “fox in the box” type, and Weah isn’t that guy (if he’s even a forward). Gregg may have to adjust the system if the forward makes that big a difference and there isn’t a viable alternative to Jozy.

Defender of the Tournament – Aaron Long (+27)

So on a per 90 basis Miazga, Zimmerman, and Cannon all come out slightly ahead of Long. I’ve mentioned this in several articles now, but I think Long is being underrated by my numbers and was actually the best defender on the USMNT for the Gold Cup. I’ve revised my eval of what Berhalter wants out of his CBs a bit based on this. One CB is clearly in charge of distribution out of the back – this is not Long’s strength. I took points on several occasions when he passed the ball OB, or to the wrong team. However, I think Gregg wants at least one CB to be the passer and the other to operate almost as a sweeper. This was Long’s role in every game he started. Miazga/Zimmerman are both better passers than Long so they were able to earn points doing that. It’s difficult for me to award points for being in the right place so you don’t even have to make a play – which is where I believe Long excels. Ideally, you want a CB that can pass and is a super athletic, good defender (*cough* Chris Richards *cough*), but we’re not France, Spain, etc.

The +3 and Under Club

To me, there’s a fairly clear line that splits players that should continue to be involved in the national team and players that don’t need to be called in again, or at least not until they’ve developed more in the case of a couple young guys (also excluding Johnson – backup keeper). Here’s the list:

• Will Trapp – 118 min. played, +3 Total, 2.3 per 90
• Djordje Mihailovic – 106 min. played, +2 Total, 1.7 per 90
• Jonathan Lewis – 90 min. played, +1 Total, 1.0 per 90
• Cristian Roldan – 147 min. played, +1 Total, 0.6 per 90
• Omar Gonzalez – 91 min. played, 0 Total, 0.0 per 90
• Gyasi Zardes – 298 min. played, -3 Total, -0.8 per 90
• Tim Ream – 353 min. played, -4 Total, -0.8 per 90
• Daniel Lovitz – 97 min. played, -6 Total, -5.5 per 90

Mihailovic and Lewis could conceivably progress with their current teams to the point where they’d be reasonable call ups again, but in the short term there are better options (Pomykal, Weah, Amon, maybe Llanez, etc.).

For Trapp, Roldan, Gonzalez, Zardes, Ream, and Lovitz…this should be goodbye. If they get called up to January camp or something, whatever, but not for any more competitive fixtures. There are better, younger options available right now, and those guys should start getting looks.

Final Thoughts

I promised to try to hold off on having an opinion on “The System” until the end of the Gold Cup. So here’s how I’ve been thinking of it:

Overall, I’d say the team is heading in the right direction. It’s a weird situation though. You have to seperate the team from the federation. Berhalter and the team are who we watch and root for and they haven’t really done anything wrong. The federation on the other hand comes off as incompetent and tone deaf at best, corrupt and uncaring at worst.

But to concentrate on the team – Berhalter seems very conservative in who he calls up. The GC roster was built to win the Gold Cup, not to test out young players. If the rosters in September and October still look the same, I’ll be concerned…but for now let’s enjoy a mostly successful Gold Cup and be hopeful about the future.

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