“Weak Link” Theory and the USMNT

“Weak link” theory is, I’m sure, new to some of you and old news to others, but I first heard about this idea listening to Malcolm Gladwell’s Revisionist History podcast. Specifically, the episode titled, “My Little Hundred Million.” It’s about the value of giving $100 million to a small college versus giving that money to Stanford, Harvard, etc.

The part that interests us, however, is a brief sidebar about soccer towards the beginning of the pod. In discussing the book, “The Numbers Game,” Gladwell explains the concept of soccer being a “weak link” game. In short, it’s the premise that upgrading your weakest player is more important than having the best player on the field.

If you look at the last two Champions League winners there is definitely some merit to the theory. Liverpool and Bayern Munich are amazing teams full of incredible players, but neither team features a Messi, Neymar, Mbappe-type (easy Van Dijk fans).

According to the studies run, you get more bang for your buck in soccer by upgrading your weakest link than you do by buying the best possible player. Basketball is an example of a “strong link” game. Since there are far fewer players, one superstar can make a much larger difference (See: Lebron, the Cleveland years) than one player can in soccer.

Looking at the USMNT

This has been one of the lenses I’ve looked at the USMNT through for some time now. It’s great to have Christian Pulisic at Chelsea and Sergiño Dest at Barcelona, but is that definitely going to lead to a massive spike in performance for the team? It would be silly to argue that it won’t have an effect, but for sustained, high-level success we need to examine the depth of the national team, not the upper crust.

Take a look at this piece of the transcript from the podcast I referenced above:

Best Players

In some order, the best players the US can field are Christian Pulisic, Sergino Dest, Gio Reyna, Tyler Adams, Weston McKennie, and John Brooks. At time of typing, Adams/McKennie are not completely healthy and betting on Brooks to stay that way is a gamble.

The strongest eleven the US can put out there probably looks something like this:

Not a bad looking eleven. If you are looking for “weak links” there are two or three spots that are well below the Pulisic/Reyna/etc level, but probably not massively so.

However, this is real life, and as USMNT fans we can’t have nice things…so let’s take a couple of those starters out. What if Adams and Brooks can’t go against Wales in two weeks (this is entirely possible btw)? Then you are looking at this:

If the USMNT is really going to take a step forward and become a top 10-15 team in the world instead of one of the top 20-30 teams in the world the “talent floor” has to be higher for the top 2-3 spots on the depth chart at every position.

At the moment, right back is the only position where I’d feel comfortable playing a backup if the top option is out. Reggie Cannon isn’t Dest, but he’s still a good player. Every other position is either a “weak link” to begin with or turns into a weak link when a backup option is inserted.

So Everything is Bad?

I’m a glass half full kind of guy when it comes to the USMNT, so no. The high end talent on the US roster skews so young that the longer it is before World Cup qualifying, the better off the team is. I’d be willing to bet that someone we don’t even have on the radar yet will make the 2022 roster.

Six months from now that list of “best players” may include Richards, Sargent, Aaronson, McKenzie, Llanez, Ledezma, Soccer, Otasowie, Cajuste, Soto, and whatever other speculative name you want to throw on there. That talent has to develop though and it hasn’t had time yet. I’m bullish on the US being an fun, exciting team to watch at he 2022 World Cup (think Belgium 2014), but not quite ready for prime time.

That’s part of what makes following this team exciting for me (if they ever play games again). We are in on the ground floor of a project that’s going to take off in the next 2-5 years. We aren’t going to be France anytime soon, but if you told me we gave them a tough game in the 2024 Euro-America Cup (FIFA will probably invent this competition by then) I’d definitely believe you.

To the future. 🍻

PS – Daryl Grove

I’m not a professional writer. I’m just a science turned history teacher that likes soccer a lot. Whatever I say here isn’t going to be good enough to do justice to Daryl. TSS made its way into my life in 2014 leading up to the World Cup in Brazil. Since then, I have listened to hundreds of hours of Daryl and Taylor talking. Other than my wife, son, and daughter I have probably heard their voices more than anyone else’s during those six years.

I have tears in my eyes as I type whatever this is. Daryl and Taylor are a big part of what inspired me to start this blog. You can tell they put the work into their podcast when it’s easy to discern that not everyone does. I thought that even though I was a soccer novice if I studied hard, watched games over and over, and put the effort in, that maybe I could be like them in a way. It’s so weird that he’s gone. CS Lewis wrote, “God whispers to us in our pleasures, speaks in our conscience, but shouts in our pain.” Daryl has been a whisper to me for years, but is now a screaming reminder to make the best of the time I have. You never know how much of it there is.

Bye, Daryl. Love you, man.

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