Bobby Warshaw asked Gregg Berhalter the following question during the sneak peak tactics video they put out shortly after GGG was hired.
Bobby: How do you know when to adjust?
This was Berhalter’s (I think revealing) response:
“I think it’s weighing how much we can hurt them versus how much they can hurt us. And if that ratio gets out of whack…then we’ll change. If we feel like we can hurt them more often than they can hurt us then we’ll continue to do what we’re doing.”
The “Problem”
The USMNT is in a little bit of a strange position. The team is not one of the best national teams in the world, yet because of the region it plays in, it is often expected to dominate play. For instance, to the right is the Gold Cup group the US has been drawn into for this summer’s tournament:
And that’s considered the hardest group of the four. The US will be favorites in every Gold Cup match all the way to the final (unless something weird happens and Mex-US is a semi or something).
However, outside of CONCACAF we are more of a mid tier nation with a puncher’s chance in many games. Let’s look at the US’ groups for the last two major tournaments we were actually in (2014 WC and 2016 Copa America).
Out of those six opponents I would judge the US to be favored against two, (Costa Rica and Paraguay) about even with one, (Ghana) and underdogs against three (Colombia, Germany, Portugal). This leads to an interesting conundrum. The way the US needs to play within its region is not the way it will likely need to play when it plays in a tournament people actually care about (sorry not sorry Gold Cup).
The Dominate CONCACAF Team
Let’s start with the team that we’ll likely see most often. The team that is expected to take the game to inferior opponents.
Let’s not get too caught up arguing over the exact players, but this is pretty close to what the full strength team will be in June.
The main criticism for playing Bradley/Trapp over Adams at the 6 is that they are both vastly inferior defenders. Against a large portion of the teams the US plays…this doesn’t matter. Adams will be able to move into the midfield for enormous chunks of the game. The team would basically play with a back three.
This makes perfect sense. The question comes when we play a team that in Berhalter’s lingo forces, “the ratio to get out of whack.” When the US inevitably/hopefully plays Mexico in the Gold Cup final what does Gregg do? I think the answer is this…
The “We’re Playing Someone Better than Us Team”
When the US comes up against a superior opponent it will have to make some changes. I think it will look something like this:
I have seen Bradley referred to as a traffic cone by some and the defense he and Trapp provide is not up to par when facing the best teams in the world. Tyler Adams on the other hand is looking like an embryonic N’golo Kante. RB Leipzig have given up one goal (on a dubious penalty) with Adams in the lineup and teams are already lining up to get a piece of him after three months in the Bundesliga.
3 Premier League clubs will have scouts on hand to watch Adams play against Hertha this Saturday. For the record, as a 6.
— Susaeta (@_Susaeta) March 28, 2019
With an actual right back in Yedlin and a defensively excellent 6, the US will be better defensively. The team will have a much better chance of stopping their opponent from playing through the middle. It would also be better at winning balls back in the midfield.
The closest we’ve come to seeing something like this was the Chile game. That isn’t a great comparison though since most of the 1st stringers played the first game (Ecuador) of the international break and not the second to save their legs for their club teams.
Maybe the above lineup isn’t exactly correct, but the thought behind it stands. That team is better equipped to deal with the top teams in the world. If you listen to Berhalter, the team will always try to keep the ball and this team could still do that while being defensively capable.
We’ll have to wait for June to see how it all plays out. From the reports going around I wouldn’t get your hopes up for an exciting, young Gold Cup roster. We’re all going to watch it anyway though. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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